The 24–25 January 2000 eastern United States snowstorm was noteworthy as operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance was poor for lead times as short as 36 h. Despite improvements in the forecast of the surface cyclone position and intensity at 1200 UTC 25 January 2000 with decreasing lead time, NWP guidance placed the westward extent of the midtropospheric, frontogenetically forced...

Weather risk causes uncertain crop yield and price further influences the willingness of farmers to participate in contract farming honour contract. In this study, we investigate optimal decisions for between a profit-maximizing manufacturer multiple identical under weather risk, using game-theoretical approach. We discuss two different cases. first case, sets ensure any condition. While second...

Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS applica...

to evaluate canola cultivars response to physiological characteristics and grain yield end seasonal drought stress in weather condition of ahvaz, farm experiments were done at research farm of khuzestan agriculture and natural resources center. during 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 crop years. farm test comprised drought stress was done as split plot form with randomize complete block design with four...

To assist in optimizing a mixed-physics ensemble for warm season mesoscale convective system rainfall forecasting, the impact of various physical schemes as well as their interactions on rainfall when different initializations were used has been investigated. For this purpose, high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of eight International H2O Project events were...

The sensitivity of numerical weather forecasts to small changes in initial conditions is estimated using ensemble samples of analysis and forecast errors. Ensemble sensitivity is defined here by linear regression of analysis errors onto a given forecast metric. We show that ensemble sensitivity is proportional to the projection of the analysis-error covariance onto the adjoint sensitivity field...

This site report describes the HIRLAM project, which deals with the development and maintenance of a state-of-the-art operational numerical short-range weather forecasting system. The report provides an insight into the diierent components of these systems, presents examples what can be achieved, and describes brieey what kind of CSE research is carried out. The international project: Its aim a...

This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP if available. Abstract The purpose of the present study is to investigate the uncertainties in simulating secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) due to meteorological initial uncertainties using the WRF-CHEM...

The deterministic shallow water equations (SWEs) are frequently used as a toy model to verify new techniques supposed to enter the milieu of numerical weather prediction. To combine stochastic and deterministic modeling, we propose a random field whose dynamics are governed by the shallow water formalism. The dynamics are introduced by embedding deterministic velocities into a stochastic tempos...

Recent applications of remote sensing techniques produce rich spatially distributed observations for flood monitoring. In order to improve numerical flood prediction, we have developed a variational data assimilation method (4D-var) that combines remote sensing data (spatially distributed water levels extracted from spatial images) and a 2D shallow water model. In the present paper (part I), we...