The virulence of Plasmodium falciparum, the causative agent of the deadliest form of human malaria, is attributed to its ability to evade human immunity through antigenic variation. These parasites alternate between expression of variable antigens, encoded by members of a multicopy gene family named var. Immune evasion through antigenic variation depends on tight regulation of var gene expressi...

Value at Risk (VaR) has emerged in recent years as a standard tool to measure and control the risk of trading portfolios. Yet, existing theoretical analyses of the optimal behavior of a trader subject to VaR limits have produced a negative view of VaR as a risk-control tool. In particular, VaR limits have been found to induce increased risk exposure in some states and an increased probability o...

BACKGROUND The variable antigen P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein-1 (PfEMP1) is a major virulence factor in malaria. A large number of var genes encode PfEMP1, and we hypothesized that a restricted PfEMP1 repertoire determines clinical disease presentation. We conducted a case-control study in Papua New Guinea and analyzed transcribed var genes in naturally infected children. METHODS...

The withdrawal of foreign capital from emerging countries at the height of the recent financial crisis and its quick return sparked a debate about the impact of capital flow surges on asset markets. This paper addresses the response of property prices to an inflow of foreign capital. For that purpose we estimate a panel VAR on a set of Asian emerging market economies, for which the waves of inf...

In common with other global NWP centres, assimilation of radiances from the ATOVS instrument package at the Met Office results in a large benefit to global NWP forecasts (English et al., 2000) and has been used operationally since mid-1999 in the Met Office global 3D-Var system. Recently work has been carried out to assess the impact of using radiances from the AMSU A&B instruments in the UK Me...

In this paper we examine how remittances relate to the exchange rate, natural disasters and foreign aid in developing economies. By using panel VAR methods we are able to compensate for both data limitations and endogeneity among variables. We find that while foreign aid tends to appreciate the real exchange rate, remittances do not have the same impact. We also detect an inverse relationship b...

Generators typically regulate terminal voltage via automatic voltage regulator and exciter equipment. The desired high side (transmission side) voltage schedule is usually maintained by the power plant operator or by slow SCADA-type process control computers. Power system dynamic performance, however, can be improved by faster regulation of the transmission voltage. Contrasted to generators, st...

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country ...

In this paper, we empirically examine the effect of inflation targeting on the exchange rate pass-through to prices in emerging countries. We use a panel VAR that allows us to use the larger data set on twenty-seven emerging countries (fifteen inflation targeters and twelve inflation nontargeters). Our evidence suggests that inflation targeting in emerging countries has helped to reduce the pas...

Exercise [2.1.5] Let > 0 and pick K = K( ) finite such that if k ≥ K then r(k) ≤ . Applying the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality for Xi −EXi and Xj −EXj we have that Cov(Xi, Xj) ≤ [Var(Xi)Var(Xj)] ≤ r(0) <∞ for all i, j. Thus, breaking the double sum in Var(Sn) = ∑n i,j=1 Cov(Xi, Xj) into {(i, j) : |i − j| < K} and {(i, j) : |i− j| ≥ K} gives the bound Var(Sn) ≤ 2Knr(0) + n . Dividing by n we see that...