We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence, EBMA improves prediction by pooling information from multiple forecast models to generate ensemble predictions similar to a weighted average of component forecasts. The weight assigned to each forecast is calibrated v...

A Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline fitting approach is used to model univariate and multivariate survival data with censoring. The possible models contain the proportional hazards model as a subclass and automatically detect departures from this. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is described to obtain the estimate of the hazard function as well as the surviva...

Many of us are concerned about an onslaught of SPAM email. Spam has become major problem for the email communications. The number of spam mails is increasing daily – studies show that over 45-50% of all current email communication is spam, it is an ever-increasing problem and will reach up to 70% in coming years. The volume of nonEnglish language spam is increasing day by day. The motivation fo...

Remote detection and identification of chemicals in a scene is a challenging problem. We introduce an approach that uses some of the image’s pixels to establish the background characteristics while other pixels represent the target for which we seek to identify all chemical species present. This leads to a generalized least squares problem in which we focus on “subset selection” to identify the...

Predicting the future location of users in wireless networks has numerous important applications, and could in turn help service providers to improve the quality of service perceived by their clients (e.g. by applying smart data prefetching and resource allocation strategies). Many location predictors have been devised over the last decade. The predictors proposed so far estimate the next locat...

We present a complete Bayesian treatment of autoregressive model estimation incorporating choice of autoregressive order, enforcement of stationarity, treatment of outliers and allowance for missing values and multiplicative seasonality. The paper makes three distinct contributions. First, we enforce the stationarity conditions using a very eecient Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm to generate ...

In this article, we propose a new method for selecting level dependent threshold in wavelet shrinkage using the empirical Bayes framework. We employ both Bayesian and frequentist testing hypothesis instead of point estimation method. The best test yields the best prior and hence the more appropriate wavelet thresholds. The standard model functions are used to illustrate the performance of the p...

Following a Bayesian statistical inference paradigm, we provide an alternative methodology for analyzing a multivariate logistic regression. We use a multivariate normal prior in the Bayesian analysis. We present a unique Bayes estimator associated with a prior which is admissible. The Bayes estimators of the coefficients of the model are obtained via MCMC methods. The proposed procedure...

In this paper we present a novel approach for human Body configuration based on the Silhouette. We propose to address this problem under the Bayesian framework. We use an effective Model based MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method to solve the configuration problem, in which the best configuration could be defined as MAP (maximize a posteriori probability) in Bayesian model. This model based M...