Considering the time-series ARIMA(p,d, q) model and fuzzy regression model, this paper develops a fuzzy ARIMA (FARIMA) model and applies it to forecasting the exchange rate of NT dollars to US dollars. This model includes interval models with interval parameters and the possibility distribution of future values is provided by FARIMA. This model makes it possible for decision makers to forecast ...

Problem statement: Network traffic prediction plays a vital role in the optimal resource allocation and management in computer networks. This study introduces an ARIMA based model augmented by Adaptive Linear Prediction (ALP) for the real time prediction of VBR video traffic. The synergy of the two can successfully address the challenges in traffic prediction such as accuracy in prediction, res...

The aim of the paper is to investigate the use of online data and time series analysis, in order to study the dynamics of new types of research collaboration in a systematic way. Two international research teams were studied for more than three years, and quantitative data about their internet use together with observation of their collaboration patterns were gathered. Time series analysis (ARI...

State Space Models (SSM) is a MATLAB toolbox for time series analysis by state space methods. The software features fully interactive construction and combination of models, with support for univariate and multivariate models, complex time-varying (dynamic) models, non-Gaussian models, and various standard models such as ARIMA and structural time-series models. The software includes standard fu...

State Space Models (SSM) is a MATLAB 7.0 software toolbox for doing time series analysis by state space meth-ods. The software features fully interactive construction and combination of models, with support for univariate andmultivariate models, complex time-varying (dynamic) models, non-Gaussian models, and various standard modelssuch as ARIMA and structural time-series models. The...

This paper presents the adaptation of CORBFN, an evolutionary cooperative-competitive hybrid algorithm for the design of Radial Basis Function Networks, for short-term forecasting of the price of extra virgin olive oil. In the proposed cooperative-competitive environment, each individual represents a Radial Basis Function, and the entire population is responsible for the final solution. In orde...

Extended Thermodynamics of dense gases is characterized by two hierarchies of field equations, which allow one to overcome some restrictions on the generality of the previous models. This idea has been introduced by Arima, Taniguchi, Ruggeri and Sugiyama. In the case of a 14-moment model, they have found the closure of the balance equations up to second order with respect to equilibrium. Here, ...

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used in different researches for modelling and forecasting of traffic and Quality of Service (QoS) parameter values in telecommunication networks to make reasonable short, mediumand long-term predictions. We propose methodology to use ARIMA models for QoS prediction in network scenarios based on a preliminary detection and elimination ...

This paper presents an empirical exercise in economic forecast using traditional time series methods, such as ARIMA and unobservable components models (UCM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). We use monthly gross industrial output data for the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) to perform a comparative exercise and access the relative performance of the different forecasting methods. The r...

AIM To study the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in forecasting the incidence of hepatitis A, which had an autoregression phenomenon. METHODS The data of the incidence of hepatitis A in Liaoning Province from 1981 to 2001 were obtained from Liaoning Disease Control and Prevention Center. We used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of time series analysis ...