This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy signifi cantly Granger-causes stock market confi dence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a copula-based Markov approach the stable nonlinear relation between confi dence and uncertainty is demo...

Is the Federal Reserve at all concerned with stock market performance, as the observation of its recent conduct might seem to suggest? Is there a theoretical scope for such a concern? This paper addresses both questions, presenting and estimating a small structural model that provides a theoretical rationale for looking at equity prices in conducting Monetary Policy. The focus is on the effects...

We have introduced an early warning system for volatility regimes regarding Tehran Stock Exchange using Markov Switching GARCH approach. We have examined whether Tehran Stock Market has calmed down or more specifically, whether the surge in volatility during 2007-2010 global financial crises still affects stock return volatility in Iran.  Doing so, we have used a regime switching GARCH model.  ...

This paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic aggregates in Iran, by applying the techniques of the long–run Granger non–causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We test the causal relationships between the TEPIX Index and the three macroeconomic variables: money supply, value of trade balance, and industrial production using quarterly data for t...

One of the features of a financial market, the stock market, in particular, is the market sentiment which is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Investors always seek to create a portfolio with minimum risk while maintaining the expected return level. Therefore, perceiving the relationship between the stock returns and markets returns can be helpf...

This paper studies the connection between the stock market and the unemployment rate. I establish three facts. First, the log of the real value of the S&P 500 and the log of a logistic transformation of the unemployment rate are non-stationary cointegrated series. Second, the stock market Granger causes the unemployment rate. Third, the connection between changes in the real value of the stock ...

The objective of this paper is to explore the day-of-the-week effect on the Indian stock market returns in the post-reform era. Till the late seventies, empirical studies provided ample evidence as to the informational efficiency of the capital markets advocating futility of information in consistently generating abnormal returns. However, later studies identified certain anomalies in the effic...

How does competition in a firm's product market affect the behavior of its stock? We examine this question in a noisy rational expectations economy in which firms operate under monopolistic competition. Production is subject to productivity shocks and requires capital, raised on a perfectly competitive equity market. Investors observe firms' past profits and collect private information about th...

Although a lot of the empirical research have studied the relationship between changes of oil price and economic activity, it is surprising that little research has been conducted on the relationship between oil price shocks and the Greater China region (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan). Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to apply a detail monthly data from 1997/7 to 2008/9 to fill up this ...

The goal of agent-based modeling of stock markets is to enrich our understanding of fundamental processes that appear in a market. Artificial stock markets are models of financial markets used to study and understand market dynamics. Agent Based Artificial Stock Markets can be seen as any market model in which prices are formed endogenously as a result of participants’ interaction. There are va...