We propose a varying coefficient Susceptible-Infected-Removal (vSIR) model that allows changing infection and removal rates for the latest corona virus (COVID-19) outbreak in China. The vSIR together with proposed estimation procedures allow one to track reproductivity of COVID-19 through time assess effectiveness control measures implemented since Jan 23 2020 when city Wuhan was lockdown follo...

COVID-19 pandemic has been raging all around the world for almost a year now, as of November 1, 2020. In this paper, we try to analyze variation in different countries light some modifications susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. The SIR model was modified by taking time-dependent rate parameters. From model, basic reproduction number, effective herd immunity, and immunity threshold are ...

In this paper, we have proposed a SIR fuzzy epidemic model by taking the transmission rate and recovery as numbers. The basic reproduction number been computed. Further considering initial values for susceptible, infected recovered population numerical simulation has carried out using Runge-Kutta method. We can predict of virus prevent COVID-19 outbreak in India with results obtained from model.

Genetic analysis of pathogen genomes is a powerful approach to investigating the population dynamics and epidemic history of infectious diseases. However, the theoretical underpinnings of the most widely used, coalescent methods have been questioned, casting doubt on their interpretation. The aim of this study is to develop robust population genetic inference for compartmental models in epidemi...

A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

We analyze a finite volume scheme for nonlocal SIR model, which is a nonlocal reaction-diffusion system modeling an epidemic disease. We establish existence solutions to the finite volume scheme, and show that it converges to a weak solution. The convergence proof is based on deriving series of a priori estimates and using a general L compactness criterion.

We present a SIR+ASI epidemic model to describe the interaction between human and dengue fever mosquito populations. A control strategy in the form of vaccination, to decrease the number of infected individuals, is used. An optimal control approach is applied in order to find the best way to fight the disease.

The influence of age structure in the susceptible class of the Susceptible-Infected Recovered (SIR) model used to describe the transmission of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was studied. This was done by first dividing all of the population classes into cohorts and then writing a set of coupled SIR equations for each cohort. The consequences of assuming different behavior of the transmission ra...