[1] The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has issued seasonal forecasts for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in early August since 1984. This paper proposes a simplified scheme, using a combination of two surface predictors selected from the newly‐developed Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as well as a dynamical forecast for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ...

We provide a new approach to automatic forecasting based on an extended range of exponential smoothing methods. Each method in our taxonomy of exponential smoothing methods provides forecasts that are equivalent to forecasts from a state space model. This equivalence allows: (1) easy calculation of the likelihood, the AIC and other model selection criteria; (2) computation of prediction interva...

Regional rainfall forecast is an important task for meteorologists. While statistical methods are usually in vogue, for this, the concept of data mining is applied to see the efficacy. The objective of this work is to develop a forecast method for the rainfall of the Northeast (NE) season over the Cauvery delta region of South India. There are three main parts in this work. The first part is in...

This study proposes a partially-combined forecasting framework for container throughput based on big data composed of structured historical data and unstructured data. Under the proposed framework, the structured data (the original time series) is firstly decomposed into linear and nonlinear components. Seasonal auto-regression integrated moving average model (SARIMA) is adopted to capture and ...

The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Ni...

Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlyi...

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University currently issues seasonal forecasts for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in early April, June, and August. This paper examines the potential for issuing an additional seasonal forecast on 1 July, using a two-predictor forecast model. The two predictors are selected from the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and explain over 60...

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) was formed in late 1996 with the aim of fostering the improvement, production, and use of global forecasts of seasonal to interannual climate variability for the explicit benefit of society. The development of the 1997/98 El Niño provided an ideal impetus to the IRI Experimental Forecast Division (IRI EFD) to generate seasonal cl...

In this study, a new method is developed to generate optimal perturbations in ensemble climate prediction. In this method, the optimal perturbation in initial conditions is the 1st leading singular vector, calculated from an empirical linear operator based on a historical model integration. To verify this concept, this method is applied to a hybrid coupled model. It is demonstrated that the 1st...