We assumed that the cross-protective immunity acquired through natural infection declines gradually in the absence of re-exposure to similar strains or vaccination [1]. We considered this decline in the model, and assumed that the pre-existing immunity (resulted from natural infection) becomes ineffective after m1 seasons (due to continual viral drift). Consistent with the observed data, we con...

The evidence presented indicates that cabbage maturing in the spring and summer months has little goiter-produdag power. Cabbage maturing in the late autumn has much greater goiter-produdng power, although this shows considerable variation in different years. It has not been possible to correlate available meteorological data with these variations.

Partial migration, in which a fraction of a population migrate and the rest remain resident, occurs in an extensive range of species and can have powerful ecological consequences. The question of what drives differences in individual migratory tendency is a contentious one. It has been shown that the timing of partial migration is based upon a trade-off between seasonal fluctuations in predatio...

The impact of a nonlinear dynamic cellular automaton (CA) model, as a representation of the partially stochastic aspects of unresolved scales in global climate models, is studied in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Two separate aspects are discussed: impact on the systematic error of the model, and impact on the skill of seasonal forecasts. ...

considering importance and the role of forecasting water consumption in water resources management and implementing appropriate short- and long-run policies in order to optimize water demand, therefore, this study aims to provide a model for predicting the water consumption via box and jenkins method. to this end, monthly data for the domestic and agricultural water consumptions of tehran provi...

Forecasting higher than expected numbers of health events provides potentially valuable insights in its own right, and may contribute to health services management and syndromic surveillance. This study investigates the use of quantile regression to predict higher than expected respiratory deaths. Data taken from 70,830 deaths occurring in New York were used. Temporal, weather and air quality m...

BACKGROUND Light severely affects the occurrence of seasonal affective disorder (SAD). AIMS To compare the prevalence of SAD in persons with severe visual impairment and persons with full sight, and in persons with severe visual impairment with or without light perception. METHOD This cross-sectional study assessed the Global Seasonality Score (GSS) and the prevalence of SAD among 2781 pers...

BACKGROUND Much research has been devoted to the determination of optimal vaccination strategies for seasonal influenza epidemics. However, less attention has been paid to whether this optimization can be achieved within the context of viral drift. METHODS We developed a mathematical model that links different intra-seasonal dynamics of vaccination and infection to investigate the effect of v...

Lake Pavin is a deep meromictic lake. Its water column is divided into two parts: the mixolimnion, which is subjected to mixing during seasonal overturns; and the monimolimnion which remains unmixed. Using high precision and high frequency temperature and conductivity profiles along with continuous temperature measurements, this study reveals the presence of a sublacustrine, intermittent cold s...