The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public’s Expectations Vary over Time and across Socio-Economic Groups We analyze expectations of the Dutch population of ages 25 and older concerning the future generosity state and occupational pensions, the two main pillars of the Dutch pension system. Since the summer of 2006, monthly survey data were collected on the expectations of D...

Digital Labor-Market Intermediation and Job Expectations: Evidence from a Field Experiment Subjective expectations are fundamental for understanding individual behavior. Yet, little is known about how individuals use new information to formulate and update their subjective expectations. In this study, we exploit data from a multi-treatment field experiment to investigate how job-market informat...

We provide evidence for the importance of information asymmetry in asset pricing by using three natural experiments. Consistent with rational expectations models with multiple assets and multiple signals, we find that prices and uninformed demand fall as asymmetry increases. These falls are larger when more investors are uninformed, turnover is larger and more variable, payoffs are more uncerta...

This paper introduces dynamic predictor selection into a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations and examines its implications for monetary policy. We extend Branch and McGough (2006) by endogenizing the fraction of rational versus adaptive agents along the lines of Brock and Hommes (1997). We show that models that are determinate under the assumption of full rationality may possess...

This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) allowing cow-calf operators to make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins, (2) formally recognizing the age distribution of the capital stock, and (3) considering a mixed scheme of rational and naive expectations. The model....

We develop a model of currency crises, in which traders are heterogeneously informed, and interest rates are endogenously determined in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium. In our model, multiple equilibria result from distinct roles an interest rate plays in determining domestic asset market allocations and the devaluation outcome. Except for special cases, this finding is not affected b...

We provide a refoundation of the symmetric growth equilibrium characterizing the research sector of vertical R&D-driven growth models. We argue that the usual assumptions made in this class of models leave the agents indi¤erent as to where targeting research: hence, the problem of the allocation of R&D investment across sectors is indeterminate. By introducing an “" contamination of con…dence” ...

Co-integration analysis is applied to historical data (1760±1864) from the worldÕs ®rst well-established futures market, in rice at Dojima (in Osaka, Japan). The market shows a strong seasonal character. The summer market was strongly characterized by producersÕ hedging behavior, and may be called a ``commodity-oriented futures market''. On the other hand, the spring and autumn markets in the m...

We explore the connection between shock observability and equilibrium. When aggregate shocks are unobserved the rational expectations solutions remain unchanged if contemporaneous aggregate outcomes are observable, but their stability under adaptive learning must be reconsidered. We obtain learning stability conditions and show that, provided there is not large positive expectational feedback, ...

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling f...