During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes, therefore, is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at for...

We address the simultaneous determination of pricing and capacity investment strategies in a multi-period setting under demand uncertainty. In our model a monopolistic firm makes three decisions: capacity investment (or disinvestment), production (inventory), and price, all of which can be specified dynamically as a function of the state of the system. We analyze the optimal joint strategy and ...

Methodist University for their comments and suggestions, and Ulrich Doraszelski for his research assistance in the programming of the simulations. Matzkin gratefully acknowledges the support of NSF through grant #SBR-9410182. Abstract In the existing marketing literature, there does not seem to be a widely accepted answer to the question: do consumers react differently to a reduction in price a...

The study of determining the factors affecting inflation or consumer price index has been conducted by many macroeconomic economists nationally as well as internationally. In this paper, we assess the external determinants of inflation dynamics in Iran. For this purpose, we use an OLS single equation model and a vector error correction model (VECM). Results of the analysis reveal that money sup...

This paper applies a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model, featuring fundamentalists and chartists, to the price-dividend and price-earnings ratios of the S&P500 index. Agents update their beliefs according to macroeconomic information, as an alternative to evolutionary dynamics. For estimation, a STAR model is introduced, with a transition function depending on multiple transition variables...

Gold price has significant nonlinearity and time-variance with many indeterminate influencing factors. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of gold price, this paper puts forward a gold price forecast model combing projection pursuit with neural network. At first, projection pursuit algorithm is used to screen the influencing factors, and then the influencing factors are used as the input ...

Branch-and-price is a generalization of linear programming (LP) based branch-and-bound specifically designed to handle integer programming (IP) formulations that contain a huge number of variables. The basic idea of branch-and-price is simple. Columns are left out of the LP relaxation because there are too many columns to handle efficiently and most of them will have their associated variable e...

Abstract—In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, and hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollineari...