Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Abstract Digital elevation models (DEMs) represent the topography that drives s...

Mean-variance (MV) analysis is often sensitive to model mis-specification or uncertainty, meaning that the MV efficient portfolios constructed with an estimate of the model parameters (i.e., the expected return vector and covariance of asset returns) can give very poor performance for another set of parameters that is similar and statistically hard to distinguish from the one used in the analys...

Detention rockfill dams are an easy and common tool for flood control. Due to their coarse pores, the flow in void spaces is turbulent and non-Darcy. Different relationships introduced by researchers are used to define the hydraulics of the flow within the rockfill materials. The present research is aimed at gaining a better understanding of the difference among these relationships and the sour...

Simple mass balance equations (SMBE) of critical acid loads (CAL) in forest soil were developed to assess potential risks of air pollutants to ecosystems. However, to apply SMBE reliably at large scales, SMBE must be tested for adequacy and uncertainty. Our goal was to provide a detailed analysis of uncertainty in SMBE so that sound strategies for scaling up CAL estimates to the national scale ...

________________________________________________________________________ Abstract Bayesian approach is applied to evaluate the prediction uncertainty in chain ladder reserving. First, the philosophy of the Bayesian approach to prediction uncertainty is introduced and compared with the Frequentist approach. All parameters in the model are then estimated using the Bayesian approach, with multiple...

this paper empirically investigates the relationship between cpi inflation uncertainty, and private investment in the iranian economy from 1988 to 2010 by using quarterly data. we employ a bivariate var(5)-garch(1,1)-in-mean with diagonal bekk model to discover in a unified framework how are the interactions between the variables. in the model, conditional variance of inflation and private inve...

Social responsibility is a key factor that could result in success and achieving great benefits for supply chains. Responsiveness and reliability are important social responsibility measures for consumers and all stakeholders that strategists and company managers should be concerned about them in long-term planning horizon. Although, presence of uncertainties as an intrinsic part of supply chai...

BACKGROUND Polymer gel dosimeters combined with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can be used for dose verification of advanced radiation therapy techniques. However, the uncertainty of dose map measured by gel dosimeter should be known. The purpose of this study is to investigate the uncertainty related to calibration curve and MRI protocol for MAGIC (Methacrylic and Ascorbic acid in Gelatin In...

The uncertainty propagation of composite structures is investigated considering descriptive statistical measures of the response variability. A study based on sensitivity to uncertainty that allows selecting the important parameters using sensitivity indices is presented. The uncertainty propagation and the importance measure of input parameters are analysed using four different approaches: a f...