for useful discussions, comments, and suggestions. Of course, all remaining errors are our own. Abstract This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the like...

In an economy with incomplete financial markets as described by Cass (1989), there is typically a continuum of equilibria driven by sunspots. In some cases, there is no Pareto ranking among the different sunspot equilibria. However, this paper shows that a sunspot equilibrium with lower price-volatility is superior in economic welfare to one with higher price-volatility based on a compensation ...

The paper proposes an original class of models for the continuous time price process of a nancial security with non-constant volatility. The idea is to deene instantaneous volatility in terms of exponentially-weighted moments of historic log-price. The instantaneous volatility is therefore driven by the same stochastic factors as the price process, so that unlike many other models of non-consta...