Managing price risk with futures contracts creates liquidity risk through marking to market. Liquidity risk matters in an imperfect capital market where interim losses on a futures position have to be financed at a borrowing rate that is higher than the risk-free rate. However, the impact of liquidity risk can be mitigated using options on futures. This paper analyzes the optimal risk managemen...

We propose a novel index of short-term endogeneity (or reflexivity) derived by calibrating the Hawkes self-excited conditional Poisson model on empirical time series of trades. The Hawkes model accounts simultaneously for the co-existence and interplay between the exogenous impact of news and the endogenous mechanism by which past trading activity may influence future trading activity. Technica...

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, application...

A futures contract is an agreement between a seller and a buyer that calls for the seller to deliver to the buyer a specified quantity and grade of an identified commodity, at a fixed time in the future, and at a price agreed in the contract. Stock index futures contract specify an equity index as the underlying asset. Arbitrage opportunity exists when the actual futures price deviates from the...

At present, the largest commodity futures variety in global market is crude oil futures, which plays a role price discovery, risk hedging, and stabilizing international prices. The fluctuation of its key issue that governments, investors, scholars around world pay attention to. This paper establishes GARCH model EGARCH under three distribution states t distribution, Normal GED distribution. The...

This study examines the impact of migration to electronic trading on the relative informational efficiency between an index futures contract and the underlying cash index. The recent move to electronic trading of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures contract provides an opportunity to study how the change affects the effective bid and ask spread in the futures market and the dynamic relationsh...

All countries consume crude oil or oil products. Both producers and consumers are highly concerned about crude oil prices. The crude oil prices are being directly affecting by several factors such as economic, political, geopolitical, and technological, oil reserves, available stocks and weather conditions, among others. On other hand the crude oil prices fluctuations influence directly the wor...

In the present study, daily settlement data of Shanghai crude oil futures and world’s major oils are selected. The role is studied regarding its pricing power hedging risk. dynamic relation analysis between international market conducted by using rolling window causality test. vector error correction model (VECM) directed acyclic graph (DAG) used to explore long-term relationship identify conte...

Based on the classical regression model, timevarying coefficient model, unit root, co-integration, Granger causality test, VAR, impulse response and variance decomposition, the dynamic relationship between prices of natural rubber futures in China and Japan has been researched systematically. The following conclusions are gotten through empirical researches: Firstly, there is a stable co-integr...

Scenarios, roadmaps and similar foresight methods are used to cope with uncertainty in areas with long planning horizons, such as energy policy, and research into the future of hydrogen energy is no exception. Such studies can play an important role in the development of shared visions of the future: creating powerful expectations of the potential of emerging technologies and mobilising resourc...