Modelling of Walter and Duerbeck’s photoelectric observations of ST Ind is performed. The Wilson-Devinney model along with a Monte Carlo method as the search procedure, was used to derive the physical parameters of this contact system. One dark spot on the surface of the primary component was introduced to explain the observed difference in the heights of the maxima.

Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modelling. In this paper, Robinson test (1994) is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.

Abstract This report reviews three possible approaches to the assignment of confidence intervals to feed-forward neural networks, namely, bootstrap estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian statistics. The report concludes with a proposal for mixture modelling via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to enable non-Gaussian variances to be modelled without introducing the bias caused ...

A method for Monte-Carlo simulation of Markov chains is considered. Here, Markov chains are described with a high-level modelling technique called transition classes. State spaces may be very large, Markov chains may be stii, i.e. rare events may occur, simulations can be executed highly in parallel, and hybrid evaluation is possible.

We introduce an inverse method for determining simultaneously the real and imaginary refractive indices of microspheres based on integrating sphere measurements of diffuse reflectance and transmittance, and Monte Carlo modelling in conjunction with the Mie theory. The results for polystyrene microspheres suspended in water are presented.

Emerging clinical applications including bioluminescence imaging require fast and accurate modelling of light propagation through turbid media with complex geometries. Monte Carlo simulations are widely recognized as the standard for high-quality modelling of light propagation in turbid media, albeit with high computational requirements. We present FullMonte: a flexible, extensible software fra...

We describe Brute, a code for generating synthetic spectra from 3D supernova models. It is based on a Monte Carlo implementation of the Sobolev approximation. The current version is highly parame-terized, but in the future it will be extended for full NLTE spectrum modelling of supernovae.

This paper reviews non-probabilistic approaches of modelling uncertainty, particularly in flood forecasting and introduces a fuzzy set theory-based method for treating precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling, which allows the temporal and/or spatial disaggregation of precipitation. The results of the fuzzy set theory-based method are compared with the probabilistic approach using...