This paper contributes to the literature on forecasting realized volatility of oil and gold by (i) utilizing Infinite Hidden Markov (IHM) switching model within Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) framework accommodate structural breaks in data (ii) incorporating, for first time literature, various sentiment indicators that proxy speculative hedging tendencies investors these markets as predicto...

Abstract “Queer” is a relatively recent and somewhat controversial term in African studies. Yet it proving to be productive, not only for understanding subjectivities of sexuality gender, but also situating Africa’s position the larger economy knowledge. Otu van Klinken explore productive tensions between “queer” “Africa,” aim read Africa as queer from Africa. Thus, rather than imagining polar ...

The paper examines the long-run relationships between the spot and future prices of Istanbul Stock Exchange 30 index (ISE-30) and foreign currencies including the Turkish Lira-US Dollar (TL/USD) and Turkish Lira-Euro (TL/EUR). We analyze the weekly data covering the period from February 9, 2005 to October 17, 2012. Considering structural breaks is important for our analysis since our period con...

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for keyword extraction. Different from previous keyword extraction methods, which identify keywords based on the document alone, this approach introduces Wikipedia knowledge and document genre to extract keywords from the document. Keyword extraction is accomplished by a classification model utilizing not only traditional word based features but also f...

This paper uses newly available long-span data on real per capita incomes from 1900-2001 to test for stochastic convergence in a diverse group of 29 countries. To perform our tests, we utilize the two-break LM unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003) and endogenously determine two distinct structural breaks in level and trend for each country. Despite including both OECD and non-OECD countri...

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism Laurence Copeland and Saeed Heravi We show that the behaviour of the real exchange rates of the UK, Germany, France and Japan has been characterised by structural breaks which changed the adjustment mechanism. In the context of a Time-Varying Smooth Transition AutoRegressive of the kind introduced by Lundbergh et al (2003), we sho...

In this paper, we propose a computationally effective approach to detect multiple structural breaks in the mean occurring at unknown dates. We present a non-parametric approach that exploits, in the framework of least squares regression trees, the contiguity property of data generating processes in time series data. The proposed approach is applied first to simulated data and then to the Quarte...

We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most likely in estimated forecasting models. Structural breaks, rather than limited information, are the ...