Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy’s level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We examine the effects that this uncertainty has on the stabilisation properties of three classes of simple ef...

Noncommutative inflation is based upon the consideration of some effects of the space-time uncertainty principle motivated by ideas from string/M theory. The CMB anisotropies may carry a signature of this very early Universe correction from the spacetime uncertainty principle and can be used to place constraints on the parameters of the noncommutative inflation model. In this paper we analyze t...

We study optimal monetary policy when the empirical evidence leaves the policymaker uncertain whether the true data-generating process is given by a model with sticky wages or a model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Unless the policymaker is almost certain about the search and matching model being the correct data-generating process, the policymaker chooses to stabilize ...

A model independent analysis shows that the running of the spectral index of the three year WMAP results can be nicely realized in noncommutative inflation. We also reexamine some concrete noncommutative inflation models. We find that a large tensor-scalar ratio is required, corresponding to a low number of e-folds before the end of inflation in some simple models. An epoch of accelerated expan...

It was suggested in 2004 by some researchers that it might be possible to improve production systems performance by applying the first and second laws of thermodynamics to reduce system entropy. Then these laws were used to modify the economic order quantity (EOQ) model to derive an equivalent entropic order quantity (EnOQ). Moreover the political instability or uncertainty of a country (as wel...

This essay distills the differences between zero inflation proponents and critics to three main questions: Can the central bank make a credible commitment to maintaining a stable price level? Should monetary policy be used to reduce the tax on capital income? And would reducing uncertainty about inflation produce significant social benefits? Proponents of zero inflation answer all three questio...

This paper reexamines the effects of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity by utilizing a flexible, dynamic, multivariate framework that accommodates possible interaction between the conditional means and variances. The empirical model is based on the identified vector autoregressive regression of Bernanke and Gertler (1995), modified to accommodate multivariate generalized autoregres...

Actual federal funds rates in the U.S. have, at times, deviated from the recommendations of a simple Taylor rule. This paper proposes a “nowcasting” Taylor rule that preserves the form of the Taylor rule but encompasses realistic assumptions on information observable to policymakers. Because contemporaneous inflation rates and output gaps are not observable at the time policy is set, policymake...

Uncertainty associated with the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a key driving force of business cycles. To investigate this link, we propose a new term structure model that allows the volatility of the yield curve to interact with macroeconomic indicators. The data favors a model with two volatility factors that capture shortterm and long-term interest rate uncertainty. Increases in e...