The objective of this article is to develop a hypothesis-testing procedure to determine whether a common source outbreak has ended. We consider the case when neither the calendar date of exposure to the pathogen nor the exact incubation period distribution is known. The hypothesis-testing procedure is based on the spacings between ordered calendar dates of disease onset of the cases. A simulati...

735 he Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) has developed a novel and scalable data mining and fuzzy association rule-making approach to deriving disease incidence predictions several weeks in advance of an outbreak. This capability provides a new set of information that may be used by decision makers in conjunction with other complementary information about the country (e....

Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we discuss some such purposes for which a stochastic model is preferable to a deterministic counterpart. The two main examples illustrate the importance of all...

The detection methods for infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) are reviewed. Advantages and disadvantages of available techniques of IBV detection by virus isolation, antigen or genome detection, and serology are discussed. Factors of influence on the level of success in detection of IBV after a disease outbreak are discussed, as are the possibilities and dangers of strain classification by protec...

Transportation among regions is found as one of the main factors which affect the outbreak of diseases. It will change the disease dynamics and break infection out even if infectious diseases will go to extinction in each city without transport-related infection. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to demonstrate the dynamics of such disease propagation between two regions (or citie...

Despite tight biosecurity measures, an outbreak of respiratory disease rapidly spread across the Icelandic equine population in 2010. Horse transportation was brought to a halt in order to contain the spread of the infectious agent. In a recent article, Björnsdóttir and colleagues (S. Björnsdóttir et al., mBio 8:e00826-17, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.00826-17) employ the power and resolu...

In 2001, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) implemented a new electronic surveillance system (SurvNet) for infectious disease outbreaks in Germany. SurvNet has captured 30,578 outbreak reports in 2001-2005. The size of the outbreaks ranged from 2 to 527 cases. For outbreaks reported in 2002-2005, the median duration from notification of the first case to the local health department until receipt o...

In January 1996, the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's national public health institute, began strengthening its epidemiologic capacity to respond to emerging and other infectious diseases. Six integrated strategies were initiated: developing employee training, outbreak investigation, and epidemiologic research programs; strengthening surveillance systems; improving communications to program par...

Measles is a highly transmissible infectious disease that causes serious illness and death worldwide. Efforts to eliminate measles through achieving high immunization coverage, well-performing surveillance systems, and rapid and effective outbreak response mechanisms while strategically engaging and strengthening health systems have been termed a diagonal approach. In March 2015, a large nation...

In an outbreak of concurrent infectious bursal disease (IBD) and caecal coccidiosis in a flock of 45 Nigerian indigenous chickens comprising of 36 unsexed 29 days old chicks and 9 adult hens, 75 per cent mortality was recorded. The adult hens were not affected.