Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about expected future inflation. Moreover, this disagreement shows substantial variation through time, moving with inflation, the absolute value of the change in inflation, and relative price variability. We argue that a satisfactory model...

Two major developments marked the monetary sector in emerging market economies (EMEs) in the 1990s. One was the steady decline in the inflation rate to low levels in the second half of the decade. The other was the growing preference for conducting monetary policy based on inflation targeting. For example, average inflation in 10 of the 14 EMEs discussed in this paper declined to a single digit...

It is a pleasure to be here in Adelaide to take part in this Economic Briefing. As the title of this address makes clear, I would like to look back over a decade of experience using an inflation target for monetary policy in Australia. Just a couple of weeks ago saw the tenth anniversary of a speech by Bernie Fraser, then Governor of the Reserve Bank, in which the outlines of our target can be ...

ISSN 0428-1276 Low inflation over long periods is the sign of an effective central bank. The authors suggest that a large fraction of the worldwide decline in inflation since the early 1980s results from an international movement toward more independent central banks. Industrialized nations have achieved a remarkable decline in inflation: Their average annual rate tumbled from 5.6% in the 1955–...

This paper considers the performance of average inflation targeting (AIT) policy in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning agents. Our analysis raises concerns regarding robustness AIT when agents have imperfect knowledge. In particular, target steady state can be locally unstable under if details about are not publicly available. Near low interest rates at zero lower bound, does necessar...

Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to Federal Reserve’s flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation expectations significantly increase for treated individuals. When additional near-term inflation, low levels trust in...

had involuntarily exited from its fixed exchange rate regime and had experienced a sharp currency depreciation as a result. The macroeconomic background was one of high and rising inflation expectations but a contracting real economy. The initial conditions for inflation targeting were not, therefore, particularly propitious. Despite this unfavorable backdrop, the United Kingdom’s experience wi...

he decision to organize a country’s monetary strategy around the direct targeting of inflation rests upon a number of economic arguments about what monetary policy can and cannot do. Over the last twenty years, a consensus has been emerging in the economics profession that activist monetary policy to stimulate output and reduce unemployment beyond their sustainable levels leads to higher inflat...