We explore the potential for making statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a perfect model analysis, with a focus on the Atlantic basin. Various statistical methods (Lagged correlations, Linear Inverse Modelling and Constructed Analogue) are found to have significant skill in predicting the internal variability of Atlantic SSTs for up to a decade ahead in control ...

[1] Recent observations show a decrease in the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall in the western United States. In this work we evaluate a historical and future climate simulation over the Colorado River Basin using a 35 km continuous 111 year simulation (1969–2079) of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with boundary forcing from the Hadley Centre for C...

A simple method is tested for scaling climate-extreme results from high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) to time-periods and emission scenarios for which the RCMs have not been run. The 30 yr mean relationships between indicators of extremes (IoEs) and annual mean daily maximum temperature (Txa) are investigated. Such relationships from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre RCM HadRM3P, alon...

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particu...

The extent to which past climate change has dictated the pattern and timing of the out-of-Africa expansion by anatomically modern humans is currently unclear [Stewart JR, Stringer CB (2012) Science 335:1317-1321]. In particular, the incompleteness of the fossil record makes it difficult to quantify the effect of climate. Here, we take a different approach to this problem; rather than relying on...

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the two perturbed physics ensembles (PPE) generated using structurally different GCMs, MIROC3.2 and HadSM3, is investigated. We develop a method to quantify the SW cloud feedback by clouds with different cloud top pressure. We find that the difference in the ensemble means of the ECS between the two ensembles is mainly caused by differences in the SW...

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known abou...