We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following uptur...

We investigate the dealer model – an artificial market model based on deterministic agents both numerically and theoretically. The agents refer to the past market prices and changes their ask/bid price. The temporal development of the market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability density function of the market price changes has power law tails. Autocorrelation coefficient o...

Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evidence that a modification to the random model--adding a slow, but significant, ...

Laboratory experiments of commodity markets have used the Cobweb design to investigate market dynamics. The predicted cycles of the Cobweb theory did not occur. Arango (2006) adds complexity and realism to the Cobweb model and observes stronger fluctuations and autocorrelation. He shows that these fluctuations are quite symmetric and similar to the behaviour observed in one category of markets....

Purpose This paper investigates the relationship between domestic gold prices and inflation in Vietnam based on monthly series of price index consumer over period December 2001–July 2020. Design/methodology/approach The co-integration is examined within autoregressive distributed lag-error correction (ARDL bounds testing) framework. also applies vector error model (VECM) impulse response functi...

The frequent and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents’ living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences social stability. Therefore it is important to forecast the price of agriculture and livestock products. As a result, we make a research on the factors affecting agricul...

A model of fluctuations in the market price including many deterministic dealers, who predict their buying and selling prices from the latest price change, is developed. We show that price changes of the model is approximated by ARCH(1) process. We conclude that predictions of dealers affected by the past price changes cause the fat tails of probability density function. We believe that this st...

I construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in this paper to study the fluctuations in the U.S. housing markets. The model features a market for newly built houses, a secondary market for old houses, and an endogenous term structure of nominal interest rates. Negative technological progress in the housing sector explains the upward trend in house prices over the past four ...

This research is intended to know the influence of interest rate, world oil price, and gold price on joint stock index with inflation as a moderating variables in Indonesia. Population this Indonesia 20 them were selected be samples for through purposive sampling technique. Estimates conducted by multiple regression analysis. The data that used study secondary data, consisted Interest Rate, Wor...