We take up the challenge of forecasting out-of-sample monthly returns on stock market indices. Recent contributions show that a wide range of popular predictors poorly forecast the US equity premium when the performance is compared to the average predictor. We revisit these findings focusing on three aspects. First, we report results for four major stock markets: US, UK, Germany and Japan. We f...

The accuracy of reservoir flow forecasting has the most significant influence on the assurance of stability and annual operations of hydro-constructions. For instance, accurate forecasting on the ebb and flow of Vietnam’s Hoabinh Reservoir can aid in the preparation and prevention of lowland flooding and drought, as well as regulating electric energy. This raises the need to propose a model tha...

Purpose – Price forecasting is essential for risk management in deregulated electricity markets. The purpose of this paper is to propose a hybrid technique using wavelet transform (WT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) to forecast price profile in electricity markets. Design/methodology/approach – Price series is highly volatile and non-stationary in nature. In this work, initially complete ...

The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth's atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governme...

This conceptual paper develops a model based on prospect theory that explores how the effort entrepreneurs expend developing financial forecasts may influence risk-taking and performance. It proposes more they forecasts, likely will be to use results of as reference points against which evaluate their ventures’ future Furthermore, we propose leads optimistic are less adjusted. Our suggests thes...

iran has a complex topography and it consists of rugged, mountainous rims surrounding high interior basins. because of this condition, in some cases the nwp output has a significant error from mesoscale variations induced by the diverse topography.  iran, covering an area of about 1,648,000 km2, is located in the southwest of asia approximately between 25° and 40° n and 44° and 64° e. this is p...