Weather forecasting is a challenging time series forecasting problem because of its dynamic, continuous, data-intensive, chaotic and irregular behavior. At present, enormous time series forecasting techniques exist and are widely adapted. However, competitive research is still going on to improve the methods and techniques for accurate forecasting. This research article presents the time series...

Abstract. Poisson conditional autoregressive model of spatio-temporal data is proposed. Markov property and probabilistic characteristics of this model are presented. Algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters are constructed. Optimal forecasting statistic minimizing probability of forecast error is given. The “plug-in” principle based on ML-estimators is used for fore...

Periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models are indicated for time series whose mean, variance and covariance function vary with the season. In this study, we develop and implement forecasting procedures for PARMA models. Forecasts are developed using the innovations algorithm, along with an idea of Ansley. A formula for the asymptotic error variance is provided, so that Gaussian pred...

This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model, which combines the seasonal time series ARIMA (SARIMA) and the neural network back propagation (BP) models, known as SARIMABP. This model was used to forecast two seasonal time series data of total production value for Taiwan machinery industry and the soft drink time series. The forecasting performance was compared among four models, i.e., the SA...

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponentia...

background and objectives: efficient cost management in hospitals’ pharmaceutical inventories have thepotential to remarkably contribute to optimization of overall hospital expenditures. to this end, reliable forecasting models for accurate prediction of future pharmaceutical demands are instrumental. while the linear methods are frequently used for forecasting purposes chiefly due to their sim...

The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropri...

An intelligent strategy for the protection of AC microgrids is presented in this paper. This method was halving to an initial signal processing step and a machine learning-based forecasting step. The initial stage investigates currents and voltages with a window-based approach based on the dynamic decomposition method (DDM) and then involves the norms of the signals to the resultant DDM data. T...