Though forecasting methods are used in numerous fields, we have seen no work on providing a general theoretical framework to build forecast operators into temporal databases. In this paper, we first develop a formal definition of a forecast operator as a function that satisfies a suite of forecast axioms. Based on this definition, we propose three families of forecast operators called determini...

In order to increase the robustness of a railway system, the detailed analysis for a combination of tracks, signalling systems, timetables and operation of trains is indispensable. We introduce an approach to foresee and analyse punctuality for railway lines where trains are densely operated. Our approach consists of three phases, namely, the analysis of the current situation of train operation...

We present the results from an on-going project financed by the Danish PSO-fund where a number of subjects relevant for further automation and improvement of short term wind power forecasts methods are studied. The technological basis of the project is adaptive forecast methods as the methods forming the basis of WPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool) – a well proven system for wind power forecastin...

Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimize...

A large literature has evolved in the thirty years since the seminal work on combining forecasts. Despite this, when evaluating performance we only look at measures of accuracy and thus ignore most of the rigour of time series analysis. Furthermore, the output from a combination of forecasts is just a single point estimate which is insufficient for business planning models which take explicit a...

The World Wide Web has been discovered by market researchers. Useful information about new markets, market volumes, or the development of existing markets can be found and compiled from Web documents. This paper focuses on the task of market forecast summarization and how it can be automated by the combination of Web-based information retrieval and information extraction techniques. Market fore...

Modeling and forecasting realized volatility is of paramount importance. Previous studies have examined the role of both the continuous and jump components of volatility in forecasting. This paper considers how to use index level jumps and cojumps across index constituents for forecasting index level volatility. In combination with the magnitude of past index jumps, the intensity of both index ...

When applied to wire ice-covering forecasting, the back propagation (BP) neural network is a lack of guidance for selecting the neural network initial connection weight and network structure, which contributes to the problem of a high degree of randomness and poses a difficulty for selecting an initial node with global properties. Combination traditional forecasting methods of Mean Generating F...

This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank m...