We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform stability analyses of the model in the three-dimensional space of its physically relevant parameters. Our results illustrate the role of these three parameter...

Future climate forcing data at the temporal and spatial scales needed to drive hydrologic models are not readily available. Simple methods to derive these data from historical data or General Circulation Model (GCM) results may not adequately capture future hydrological variability. This study assessed streamflow response to daily future climate forcing data produced by a new method using subse...

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on th...

Scientific context Rotation, as measured by the Rossby number (the ratio of the rotation period to the eddy turn over time) is present in astroand geophysics. For example, the high Reynolds number large scales of atmospheric and oceanic flows are affected by the rotation of the Earth; the Rossby number Ro = U0/[L0Ω] for mid-latitude atmospheric synoptic scales is Ro ≈ 0.1 whereas in the solar c...

The mechanism and sensitivity of the lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST forcing are examined using the Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model (QTCM) coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean model, along with a simple analytical model. It is found that the lag and amplitude of tropospheric temperature response depend on mixed layer d...

We examine the sensitivity of a climate model to a wide range of radiative forcings, including changes ofsolar irradiance, atmospheric CO2, 03, CFCs, clouds, aerosols, urface •bedo, and a "ghost" forcing introduced at arbitrary heights, latitudes, longitudes, easons, and times of day. We show that, in general, the climate response, specifically the global mean temperature change, issensitive to...

The availability of global gridded precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data after 1978 makes possible an investigation of the influence of the decadal solar oscillation in the tropics during three solar maxima and two solar minima. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses starting in the 1950s allows the inclusion of an additional two solar maxima and minima to look for consistency of response...

Based on a fully coupled, high-resolution regional climate model, this study analyzed three-dimensional temperature and momentum changes in the South China Sea (SCS) from 1970 to 2000, during which period the climate shifts from a decadal La Ni~ na-like condition (before 1976/1977) to a decadal El Ni~ no-like condition afterward. With a set of partially coupled experiments, sea surface temperat...

Possible future changes of North Atlantic hurricane intensity and the attribution of past hurricane intensity changes in the historical period are investigated using phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), multimodel, multiensemble simulations. For this purpose, the potential intensity (PI), the theoretical upper limit of the tropical cyclone intensity given the large-scal...

Aerosol particles can strongly affect both air quality and the radiation budget of the atmosphere. Above Beijing, the capital city of China, large amounts of aerosols within the atmospheric column have caused the deterioration of local air quality and have influenced radiative forcings at both the top and the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA and TOA). Observations of aerosol radiative forcing and ...