The paper re-expresses arguments against the normative validity of expected utility theory in Pope (1983, 1991a, 1991b, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007). These concern the neglect of the evolving stages of knowledge ahead (stages of what the future will bring). Such evolution is fundamental to an experience of risk, yet not consistently incorporated even in axiomatised temporal version...

Uncertain statistics is a methodology for collecting and interpreting experts’ experimental data by using uncertainty theory. Based on empirical uncertainty distributions, this paper will present a statistical method of uncertain hypothesis testing to detect whether two uncertainty distributions are equal. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

T paper reports results from a repeated experiment on decision making under risk where subjects must address the same choice problems in several rounds. We investigate how behavior changes in the course of the experiment. The design focuses on choice problems allowing for direct tests of independence and coalescing. We show that inconsistencies in responses as well as violations of independence...

BACKGROUND AND AIMS It has been proposed that more use should be made of Bayes factors in hypothesis testing in addiction research. Bayes factors are the ratios of the likelihood of a specified hypothesis (e.g. an intervention effect within a given range) to another hypothesis (e.g. no effect). They are particularly important for differentiating lack of strong evidence for an effect and evidenc...

The nonexistence of equilibria in models of electoral competition involving multiple issues is one of the more puzzling results in political economics. In this paper, we relax the standard assumption that parties act as expected utility maximizers. We show that equilibria often exist when parties with limited knowledge about the electorate are modeled as uncertainty-averse. What is more, these ...

We introduce a framework which is based on probabilistic Description logics (Prob-DL), to represent and solve multi-criteria discrete alternative problems by calculating expected utility. To our knowledge, this is the first ever approach for calculating expected utility using a Description logics based formalism.

Representational issues of preferences in the framework of a possibilistic ordinal decision model under uncertainty were introduced by Dubois and Prade quite recently In this framework nite linear uncertainty and preference scales are assumed and decisions can be ranked according to their expected utility in terms of Sugeno integrals In this paper we generalise the model by allowing i to measur...

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