This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for real growth in the euro area through bivariate and multivariate non-parametric Granger causality tests. Apart from assessing the within-country forecasting ability of commonly-employed financial variables, such as the term spread, the stock market returns and the growth of real money supply, we also test for cross-country...

Does economic theory help in forecasting key macroeconomic variables? This article aims to provide some insight into the question by drawing lessons from the literature. The definition of "economic theory" includes a broad range of examples, such as accounting identities, disaggregation and spatial restrictions when forecasting aggregate variables, cointegration and forecasting with Dynamic Sto...

Forecasting the behavior of the financial market is a nontrivial task that relies on the discovery of strong empirical regularities in observations of the system. These regularities are often masked by noise and the financial time series often have nonlinear and non-stationary behavior. With the rise of artificial intelligence technology and the growing interrelated markets of the last two deca...

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Sec...

To be successful in financial market trading it is necessary to correctly predict future market trends. Most professional traders use technical analysis to forecast future market prices. In this paper, we present a new hybrid intelligent method to forecast financial time series, especially for the Foreign Exchange Market (FX). To emulate the way real traders make predictions, this method uses b...

In recent years, the global economic recession, followed by failure of business due to poor management, has resulted in a domino effect that occurred throughout the financial system. To avoid the expansion of loss, the issue of business failures should be seriously considered. In this paper, firstly, to reduce the time and space spent in our models learning and prediction, we use the data minin...

cash flow forecasting is an indispensable tool for construction companies, and is essential for the survivalof any contractor at all stages of the work. the time available for a detailed pre-tender cash flow forecast is oftenlimited. therefore, contractors require simpler and quicker techniques which would enable them to forecast cash flowwith reasonable accuracy. forecasting s-curves in constr...

Foreign exchange (Forex) is the global scale trading of currency and the most liquid financial market. Therefore, predicting Forex has been challenged for many years. On the other hand, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was widely used by researchers as a prediction technique since it can provide the best prediction result. This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of ANN which used to f...