introduction: bipolar affective disorder is cyclic swinging of mood between mania or hypo-mania and depression. lifetime prevalence of bipolar disorder is 2.4%. a numbers of risk factors are associated with bipolar disorders including age, sex, and genetic predisposition, environmental factors and socioeconomic status. the main objective of the conducted study was to assess vulnerability for bi...

background: alzheimer’s disease (ad) is the most common type of dementia. demonstrating the modifiable risk factors of ad can help to plan for prevention of this disease. the aim of the current review was to characterize modifiable cardiovascular risk factors of ad using existing data and determine their contribution in ad development in iran and the world. methods: the systematic search was do...

results total prevalence's of subjects with wrist-hand, shoulder-arm, neck back and lower limb disorders were obtained 556 (82.6%), 352 (52.3%), 238 (35.4%), 454 (67.5%), and 149 (22.1%) respectively (p = 0.028). the highest cumulative risk was corresponded to wrist-hand, and after that were cumulative risks of back, shoulder-arm, neck, and lower limb respectively. objectives this study was con...

the failure mode and effects analysis (fmea) is a widely used analytical technique that helps to identify and reduce the risks of failure in a system, component, or process. one important issue of fmea is the determination of the risk priorities of failure modes. risk ranking is produced in order to prioritize the focus on each of the failure modes that are identified. in this study, we applied...

background: this paper offers mortality risk rankings for iranian mortality data. it extends methods to include mixed co­horts, tests changes in mortality risks, compares measures of risk and discusses public policy implications. methods: the methodology used in risk measures takes current practice and extends it to include variations in population dy­nam­ics. the specification is presented and...

In quantitative risk management, it is important and challenging to find sharp bounds for the distribution of the sum of dependent risks with given marginal distributions, but an unspecified dependence structure. These bounds are directly related to the problem of obtaining the worst Value-at-Risk of the total risk. Using the idea of the complete mixability, we provide a new lower bound for any...

We extend the definition of a convex risk measure to a conditional framework where additional information is available. We characterize these risk measures through the associated acceptance sets and prove a representation result in terms of conditional expectations. As an example we consider the class of conditional entropic risk measures. A new regularity property of conditional risk measures ...

This chapter reviews the recent developments of Value at Risk (VaR) estimation. In this survey, the most available univariate and multivariate methods are presented. The robustness and accuracy of these estimation methods are investigated based on the simulated and real data. In the backtesting procedure, the conditional coverage test (Christoffersen 1998), the dynamic quantile test (Engle and ...

In management and planning it is a daily reality that more and more information is available gradually over time. It is well known that most risk measures (risk functionals) are time inconsistent in this situation in the following sense: it may happen that today some loss distribution appears to be less risky than another, but looking at the conditional distribution at a later time, the opposit...

Choosing a proper external risk measure is of great regulatory importance, as exemplified in the Basel II and Basel III Accords, which use value-at-risk with scenario analysis as the risk measures for setting capital requirements. We argue that a good external risk measure should be robust with respect to model misspecification and small changes in the data. A new class of data-based risk measu...