Abstract Expert judgments are widespread in many fields, and the way which they collected procedure by aggregated considered crucial steps. From a statistical perspective, expert subjective data must be gathered treated as carefully scientifically possible. In elicitation phase, multitude of experts is preferable to single expert, techniques based on anonymity iterations, such Delphi, offer adv...

the assessment of de-desertification alternatives can be effective in controlling the reclamation of disturbed landand avoiding destruction of areas at risk. until now, there has been no method to consider different criteria andalternatives, or to present the optimum alternatives based on systematic structures and experts’ perspectives.desertification is a complex process resulting from various...

the determination of effective indicators in order to decide on the location of industrial units with the aim of optimizing the use of raw material, reduce costs and waste and marketing of products is very important. determining the effective indicators in optimal choice for seating block board unites (with use the back of scrap plywood, twigs little low diameter wood’s) in country was target o...

abstract financial and electronic debts are one of the important issues in iran's financial scope that are considered by economists due to their role in creating financial instabilities. therefore, a model was represented in this survey to evaluate and rank financial and electronic debts in iran including foreign debts, governmental debts, non-governmental debts and banking debts during th...

The well-known experiments of Nisbett and Wilson lead to the conclusion that we have no introspective access to our decision-making processes. Johansson et al. have recently developed an original protocol consisting in manipulating covertly the relationship between the subjects' intended choice and the outcome they were presented with: in 79.6% of cases, they do not detect the manipulation and ...

BACKGROUND Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) global strategy (2015) provides guidance for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with different first-choice options per GOLD category without specification. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the level of medical experts' consensus on their preferred first-choice treatment within different COPD categories....

BACKGROUND Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. METHODS Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues...

Scoring rules for eliciting expert predictions of random variables are usually developed assuming that experts derive utility only from the quality of their predictions (e.g., score awarded by the rule, or payoff in a prediction market). We study a more realistic setting in which (a) the principal is a decision maker and will take a decision based on the expert’s prediction; and (b) the expert ...