This paper presents a dynamic political economy theory of public spending, taxation, and debt. The theory builds on the well-known tax smoothing approach to fiscal policy pioneered by Robert Barro (1979). This approach predicts that governments will use budget surpluses and deficits as a buffer to prevent tax rates from changing too sharply. Thus, governments will run deficits in times of high ...

I document that government debt is related to risk premia in various asset markets: (i) the debt-to-GDP ratio positively predicts excess stock returns with out-of-sample R2 up to 30% at a five-year horizon, outperforming many popular predictors; (ii) the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively correlated with credit risk premia in both corporate bond excess returns and yield spreads; (iii) higher debt-...

We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy, seeks to insure a risk averse domestic constituency, and is more impatient than the market. Optimal policy generates long-run cycles in both sovereign debt and foreign direct investment in an environment in which the first best capital stock...

This paper considers optimal fiscal policy in a deterministic Lucas and Stokey (1983) economy in the absence of government commitment. In every period, the government chooses a labor income tax and issues any unconstrained maturity structure of debt as a function of its outstanding debt portfolio. We find that the solution under commitment cannot always be sustained through the appropriate choi...

How valuable are restrictive debt covenants in reducing the agency costs of debt? I answer this question by exploiting the revealed preference decision to refinance fixed-coupon debt, which weighs observable interest rate savings against the unobservable costs of a change in restrictive debt covenants induced by refinancing. Plausibly exogenous variation in this trade-off reveals that firms req...

This paper traces the origins of World Bank indicators of debt-distress and their employment as HIPC sustainability targets. These targets are interpreted as ‘switching values’, below which countries are (on average) expected to avoid debt service problems, but as such, they do not take into account that countries encounter debt service problems for a variety of reasons and at different levels ...

In this paper we study jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy framework with capital and sticky prices. We consider the case of distortionary taxes on labor and capital, and no public debt. As in a closed economy set–up, in the steady state, the optimal inflation rate is zero, as well as the optimal tax on capital. The dynamic properties of optimal monetary and fis...

An asset-pricing perspective on inflation reveals that it depends on current and expected monetary and fiscal policies. There are three ways to carry $1 today into the future: money, bonds, and real assets. That dollar’s purchasing power varies inversely with the price level. Expected money growth, tax rates, and government spending directly impinge on these expected rates of return of these as...