Conditioned Belief Propagation (CBP) is an algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models. It works by conditioning on a subset of variables and solving the remainder using loopy Belief Propagation. Unfortunately, CBP’s runtime scales exponentially in the number of conditioned variables. Locally Conditioned Belief Propagation (LCBP) approximates the results of CBP by trea...

“Damned by faint praise” is the phenomenon whereby weak positive information leads to a negative change in belief. This seemingly conflicts with normative Bayesian predictions, which prescribe that positive information should only exert a positive change in belief. We argue that the negative belief change is due to an inference from critical missing evidence; that is, an implicit argument from ...

We characterize belief-free equilibria in infinitely repeated games with incomplete information with N ≥ 2 players and arbitrary information structures. This characterization involves a new type of individual rational constraint linking the lowest equilibrium payoffs across players. The characterization is tight: we define a set of payoffs that contains all the belief-free equilibrium payoffs; ...

Learning IPE p(r | Ft, St) / p(Ft | r, St)p(r) Does revise belief about mass: Fixed Belief IPE Does not revise belief about mass: p(r | Ft) = p(r) Models 7 Conclusions • Most conditions inferred the correct mass by Trial 8, and several even by Trial 1 • Interestingly: first few trials of random order, r=0.1 give evidence for the wrong mass (arrow) • Also, primacy effects: binary feedback can't ...

In a probability-based reasoning system, Bayes’ theorem and its variations are often used to revise the system’s beliefs. However, if the explicit conditions and the implicit conditions of probability assignments are properly distinguished, it follows that Bayes’ theorem is not a generally applicable revision rule. Upon properly distinguishing belief revision from belief updating, we see that J...

Type structures are a simple device to describe higher-order beliefs. However, how can we check whether two types generate the same belief hierarchy? This paper generalizes the concept of a type morphism and shows that one type structure is contained in another if and only if the former can be mapped into the other using a generalized type morphism. Hence, every generalized type morphism is a h...

This essay looks at the use of vernacular web culture by new right. Specifically it focuses on how, in recent years, right appropriated a genre aesthetics known as ‘vapourwave’ to create sub-genre ‘fashwave’. Like vapourwave before it, fashwave taps into cultural imaginary that is nostalgic for an imagined ‘cyberpunk’ past future — but while former has been subject monograph (Tanner 2016), very...