1. Bioclimate envelope models are widely used to predict the potential distribution of species under climate change, but they are conceptually also suitable tomatch policies and practices to anticipated or observed climate change, for example through species choice in reforestation. Projections of bioclimate envelope models, however, come with large uncertainties due to different climate change...

Recently, the effects of global climate changes have become top concerns for governments’ decision making regarding infrastructure investments. Extreme weather events that exceed the capacity of existing systems have considerably increased in frequency, and the potential effects of changing trends in temperature and rainfall on infrastructure are difficult to ignore. It is essential for governm...

A model that integrates biophysical simulations in an economic model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on crop production. The biophysical model simulates future plantmanagement-climate relationships and the economic model simulates farmers’ adaptation actions to climate change using a nonlinear programming approach. Beyond the development of average yields, special attention is d...

The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible soci...

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of ...

The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal impor...

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland M. Hirschi, S. Stoeckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, P. Calanca, M. W. Rotach, A. M. Fischer, B. Duffy, and J. Samietz Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Krähbühlstrasse 58, 8044 Zürich, Switzerland Agroscope Changins-Wädenswil Research Station ACW, Schloss, P.O. Box 185, 8820 Wädenswil,...

The IPCC TAR (2001) suggests that Southern and Central European countries may become highly vulnerable to global warming. In the frame of the Hungarian national climate change program, adaptation of regional models with fine horizontal resolution (10-25 km) is in progress. Since detailed simulations and evaluation of the final results are not available yet for the Carpathian Basin, results of t...

By applying a two-step statistical downscaling technique to four climate models under different future emission scenarios, we produced future projections of the daily precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperatures over the Spanish region of Aragón. The reliability of the downscaling technique was assessed by a verification process involving the comparison of the downscaled reanalysis da...