This paper proposes a new method to forecast S&P 500 return distribution by combining quantile regression models using macro-finance variables with volatility-based models including various standard EGARCH and stochastic volatility specifications. 30 density forecasting models are compared and combined in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using macro-finance variables is found to help subs...

The standard linear technique of impulse response function analysis is extended to the nonlinear case by de"ning a generalized impulse response function. Measures of persistence and asymmetry in response are constructed for a wide class of time series. ( 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classixcation: C22; C51; C52; E32

Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low private debt states, resulting in multipliers that are below one. Conversely, in periods of private debt overhang, there is ...

The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the destruction countercyclical. This new finding can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead lumpy employment adjustment. predicts that policies aim stimulate encouraging creation, such as subsidies, are significantly less effective recessions: these times when few firms near their thresholds and m...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. The recent recovery in Latin America has been impressive but ...

Many emerging economies have experienced current account reversals followed by large declines in economic activity. These sudden stops are reflected in their real interest rates, which alternate between tranquil times, when the level is relatively low and stable, and crises, during which interest rates are higher and more volatile. We embed an estimated regime switching process of interest rate...

I analyze an extension of the New Keynesian model that features overlapping generations finitely lived agents and (stochastic) transitions to inactivity. In contrast with standard model, proposed framework allows for existence rational expectations equilibria asset price bubbles. study conditions under which bubble-driven fluctuations may emerge type monetary policy rules prevent them. conclude...