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A forecaster provides a probabilistic prediction regarding the following day’s state of nature. To examine the forecaster, an inspector employs calibration tests that compare the average prediction and the empirical frequency of pre-specified events. This paper shows that any mixed test can be manipulated in the sense that, independently of the state realizations, the difference between the ave...
Can we increase screening participation, and if so, at what cost? These were the questions I asked myself while reading the article “Effect of provider and patient reminders, deployment of nurse practitioners, and financial incentives on cervical and breast cancer screening rates,” which appears on page e282 of this issue.1 Kaczorowski et al present the results of a large concerted effort that ...
Modeling pattern data series with cellular automata fails for a wide range of deterministic nonlinear spatial processes. If the latter have finite spatially-local memory, reconstructed cellular automata with infinite radius may be required. In some cases, even this is not adequate: an irreducible stochasticity remains on the shortest time scales. The underlying problem is illustrated and quanti...
The probability of infection of disease is an issue that may be a concern for many citizens, especially for people regarding to their jobs or by having dangerous relations and etc. are exposed to infection by this kind of disease. The assumption is where that person presently is not diagnosed with any disease and also in the future hisher infection is uncertain but often it is probable that the...
Although the Quran is not a historical book, it has presented some reports from the events of the prophetic era. These reports in the era of the last prophet (p.b.u.h) were subject to criticism and evaluation of the Quran opponents. Therefore, if there were any defects latent in the historical reports of the Quran, or if there were any false report included in these reports, it would naturally ...
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