in this paper using catastrophe theory, we investigate non-smooth changes in tehran stock exchange. stock market crashes bring not only panic among investors, but also in deeper market lead to recession and decrease in consumer's confidence. as catastrophe theory is strong tool in explaining nonlinear phenomena, by applying stochastic cusp catastrophe model we examine sudden change in tehr...

Most studies of the predictability of stock and bond returns rely on in-sample tests. In this paper, we test the ability of ten financial variables that have appeared in the extant literature to predict S&P 500 and CRSP equal-weighted stock returns out-of-sample over horizons of 1-10 years. We also test the ability of two financial variables, the term and default spreads, to predict long-term c...

This paper studies the relationship between three measures of relative earnings and firm performance based on data of 664 listed manufacturing companies in China over the period 2005-2012. It finds that (1) capital earnings relative to labor earnings and the overall average wage level relative to a firm’s average wage level had negative effects on firm performance; (2) the earnings of high-leve...

This paper investigates whether investors are compensated for the tax burden of equity securities. Effective tax rates on equity securities vary over time due to frequent tax reforms and cross-sectionally due to persistent differences in propensities to pay dividends. The paper finds an economically and statistically significant relationship between risk-adjusted stock returns and effective per...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the trading behavior and the impact of new investors on the bubble surrounding the Baosteel call warrant, the first derivative traded in China after a nine-year suspension. First, we find that the new investors initiated the bubble. Second, echoing common wisdom, we empirically show that the continuous entries of new investors sustained the bubble. T...

Existing microstructure literature cannot explain the empirical evidence that bid-ask spreads can decrease with information asymmetry and ignores either information asymmetry or inventory risks. We develop a market making model that highlights the asset pricing impact of market makers’ capability of making offsetting trades in markets where both information asymmetry and inventory risk are sign...

We study the returns to investing in VIX futures and VIX Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs). We document a substantial negative return premium for both ETNs and the futures. For example, the a constant maturity portfolio of one-month VIX futures loses about 30% per year over our sample period (2006-2013). We propose an equilibrium model to explain these negative returns. In this model, increases in v...

Market makers in over-the-counter markets often make offsetting trades and have significant market power. We develop a market making model that captures this market feature as well as other important characteristics such as information asymmetry and inventory risk. In contrast to the existing literature, a market maker in our model can optimally shift some trade with the informed to other discr...