Logistic smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of a logistic transform of the monthly US unemployment rate are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Markov switching model is identified by constraining the first autoregression coefficient to differ across regimes. The transition variable in the LSTAR model is the lagged seasonal difference of the unemployment...

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a structural equation path models is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial sector. Human capital allocated to financial activities will improve long-run levels but may reduce growth ...

What are the impacts on household incomes of the major economic downturn that occurred in almost all OECD countries starting in late 2007? This paper is a condensed version of a public lecture given at the University of Melbourne in honour of R. I. Downing. It draws on a study of 21 rich countries using data from national accounts, household surveys, and other sources. The headline findings are...

Flexibility vs. Rigidity: Does Spain have the worst of both Worlds? In this paper we study the structure of labor market flows in Spain and compare them with France and the US. We characterize a number of empirical regularities and stylized facts. One striking result is that the job finding rate is slightly higher than in France, while the jon loss rate is much higher, putting Spain half-way be...

The association between malignancy and glomerular disease has been appreciated for decades [Baschinsky et al., Am J Kidney Dis 2000;36:E24]. Several types of glomerular injury in patients with cancer have been recognized [Morikawa et al., CEN Case Rep 2013;2:158-164; Baschinsky et al., Am J Kidney Dis 2000;36:E24]. The most common association is between nephrotic syndrome and carcinoma [Baschin...

Publication selection bias represents one of the most serious challenges to the integrity of empirical economics. We develop Heckman regression methods to solve this potentially persistent problem and apply these meta-regression methods to seventy five empirical estimates from the efficiency-wage literature. Although many researchers find mixed or ambiguous support for the efficiency wage hypot...

We consider a frictional labor market in which firms want to insure their senior employees against income fluctuations and, at the same time, want to recruit new employees to fill their vacant positions. Firms can commit to a wage schedule, i.e. a schedule that specifies the wage paid by the firm to its employees as function of their tenure and other observables. However, firms cannot commit to...