We develop a simple model of credit market imperfections, in which the agents have access to a variety of investment projects, which differ in productivity, in the investment size, and in the severity of the agency problems behind the borrowing constraints. A movement in borrower net worth can shift the composition of the credit between projects with different productivity levels. The model thu...

In addition to providing utility, and possibly capital gains, housing facilitates credit transactions when home equity serves as collateral. We document big increases in home-equity loans coinciding with the US house-price boom, and suggest a connection. When it is used as collateral, housing bears a liquidity premium. Since liquidity is endogenous, and depends to some extent on beleifs, even w...

This paper analyzes the role of money in asset markets characterized by search frictions. We develop a dynamic framework that brings together a model for illiquid financial assets à la Duffie, Gârleanu, and Pedersen, and a search-theoretic model of monetary exchange à la Lagos and Wright. The presence of decentralized financial markets generates an essential role for money, which helps investor...

We study the dynamic general equilibrium of an economy where risk averse shareholders delegate the management of the firm to risk averse managers. The optimal contract has two main components: an incentive component corresponding to a non-tradable equity position and a variable “salary” component indexed to the aggregate wage bill and to aggregate dividends. Tying a manager’s compensation to th...

This paper introduces a framework to study the links between the supply of liquid assets for the financial market and the international allocation of economic activity. Private assets’ liquidity properties—their usefulness as collateral or media of exchange in financial transactions— affect assets’ values and interest rates, with consequences on firm entry, production, aggregate productivity, a...

An integrated monetary growth model of Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin type with a portfolio approach to its three asset markets (money, bonds, equities) is introduced to study the interaction between the real and the financial part of market economies. Beneath expectations and governmental behavior, profits and their implied dividend payments influence the behavior of asset markets, which determine int...

This paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis. Aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation. While ‘moderate’ participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy, lo...

Several empirical studies have documented that the signs of excess stock returns are, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider the predictive ability of the binary dependent dynamic probit model in predicting the direction of monthly excess stock returns. The recession forecast obtained from the model for a binary recession indicator appears to be the most useful predictive varia...

Article history: Received 26 August 2013 Received in revised form 5 September 2013 Accepted 23 September 2013 Available online 29 September 2013 While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the exten...

The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and infl ation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI infl ation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causalit...