The properties of tropical cyclones in three low-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in seven ocean basins are discussed. The models are forced by prescribed, observed sea surface temperatures over a period of 40 yr, and their simulations of tropical cyclone activity are compared with observations. The model cyclone characteristics considered include genesis position, numb...

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its e...

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclon...

gonu storm was formed in tropical basin of indian ocean early in june 2007. gonu is the strongest tropical cyclone that happened in arabian sea and north indian ocean and moved toward oman sea and persian gulf and bouncing the lands around the area. this tropical cyclone made extensive damages and human and financial causalities to countries of oman, iran, afghanistan, pakistan, and india. in t...

A long-term goal of this research is to improve dynamical prediction of tropical cyclones using ensemble methods for making analyses and forecasts. A second goal is to use the information contained in ensemble analyses and forecasts to improve basic understanding of tropical cyclone dynamics. Finally, a third goal is to use ensemble-based sensitivity analysis to target observations for tropical...

The overall project goal is to assess the skill of the probabilistic nature of mediumand extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and track over the tropical WPAC. Skill is examined with respect to processes associated with forcing by various tropical circulation factors, which are hypothesized to be the largest contributor to low-frequency variation in tropical cyclone activity an...

Abstract The potential changes in the characteristics and damage of three most damaging tropical cyclone (TC) events (Haiyan 2013, Bopha 2012, Mangkhut 2018) Philippines have been simulated using pseudo global warming (PGW) technique. Simulations were performed Weather Research Forecasting model at 5 km resolution with cumulus parameterization (5 kmCU) 3 without (3 kmNoCU), PGW deltas derived f...

The influence of oceanic changes on tropical cyclone activity is investigated using observational estimates of sea surface temperature (SST), air–sea fluxes, and ocean subsurface thermal structure during the period 1998– 2007. SST conditions are examined before, during, and after the passage of tropical cyclones, through Lagrangian composites along cyclone tracks across all ocean basins, with p...

Over the global tropics, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (Madden and Julian 1994, MJO) explains a significant amount of the variability in circulation and convection on intraseasonal time scales. However, significant variation exists in the spatial extent and seasonal occurrence of the MJO. While the upper-level divergent flow associated with MJO is often traced around the globe, the low-level wi...