Abstract I exploit the leveraged exchange-traded funds’ (ETFs’) primary market to measure aggregate, uninformed, gambling-like demand, that is, speculation sentiment. The ETFs’ is a novel setting provides observable arbitrage activity attributed correcting mispricing between shares and their underlying assets. proxies for magnitude direction of speculative demand shocks use them form Speculatio...

Abstract Despite wide recognition that speculation is critical for successful science, philosophers have attended little to it. When they have, has been characterized in narrowly epistemic terms: a hypothesis speculative due its (lack of) evidential support. These ‘evidence-first’ accounts provide guidance what makes productive or egregious, nor how foster the former while avoiding latter. I ex...