The identification of reduced-form VAR model had been the subject of numerous debates in the literature. Different sets of identifying assumptions can lead to very different conclusions in the policy debate. This paper proposes a theoretical consistent identification strategy using restrictions implied by a DSGE model. Monte Carlo simulations suggest the proposed identification strategy is succ...

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanisms of a contractionary monetary policy shock on the real economy. The sufficiently long regime uniform time period since the political transformation in the Czech Republic provides evidence for effective inflation targeting by the Czech National Bank. I apply a recursive vector autoregression (VAR), a structural VAR, and structural vector error corre...

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992), who detected evidence of in-sample predictability in international equity and foreign exchange markets...

Drosophila melanogaster heterochromatin protein 2 (HP2) interacts with heterochromatin protein 1 (HP1). In polytene chromosomes, HP2 and HP1 colocalize at the chromocenter, telomeres, and the small fourth chromosome. We show here that HP2 is present in the arms as well as the centromeric regions of mitotic chromosomes. We also demonstrate that Su(var)2-HP2 exhibits a dosage-dependent modificati...

Estimating structural state space models with maximum likelihood is often infeasible. If the model can be expressed as a reduced form vector-autoregression (VAR) in the observable data, then two step techniques such as minimum chi-square estimation can reliably recover structural parameter estimates. However, macroeconomists cannot always rely on the existence of a VAR reduced form – as is ofte...

Recently, a significant share of the empirical analysis on the impact of public capital on regional growth has used multivariate time-series frameworks based on vector auto regressive (VAR) models. Nevertheless, not as much attention has been dedicated to the analysis of the long-run determinants of regional growth processes using multi-region panel data and applying panel integration and co-in...

This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based on timing restrictions, long run restrictions, and restrictions on factor loadings are discussed and...

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we show how to amend the VAR if informational sufficiency is rejected. We apply our procedure to a VAR ...

a central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. this paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (var) model. by imposing long—run restrictions on a var model for iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...