increasing greenhouse gases in recent decades and increasing its resulting temperature has causes the imbalance of the earth’s climate system and widespread climate changes in most regions of earth planet. development strategic policy in this area has been forced with a big challenge because of the need for water in the central region on the one hand and water resource constraints on the other ...

abstract due to low spatial resolution or simplifying of some micrometeorological phenomena, atmospheric general circulation models are not able to give a good estimation for weather conditions over study area. so their outputs should downscale into weather stations scales. in this research data of hadcm3 downscaled by using lars-wg5 with three scenarios, confirmed by ipcc including a1b, a2 and...

introduction because of the vital role of water in human life, examining the phenomenon of climate change effects on drought severity and frequency is important for any area of interest. nowadays, climate researchers considers the effects of climate change and climate simulations by using the atmospheric-ocean general circulation models. to achieve the prediction of climatologically parameters,...

Classical statistical theory offers validity under restricted assumptions. However, in practice, it is a common approach to perform statistical analysis based on data-driven model selection [1], which guarantees none of results of classical statistical theory. Those results include hypothesis testings and confidence intervals which are useful tools of measuring fitness of models. Considering th...

The purpose of model selection algorithms such as All Subsets, Forward Selection, and Backward Elimination is to choose a linear model on the basis of the same set of data to which the model will be applied. Typically we have available a large collection of possible covariates from which we hope to select a parsimonious set for the efficient prediction of a response variable. Least Angle Regres...

Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long-term continuous climate data. Weather generators provide a means of synthesizing long-term climate data that can then be ...

I have enjoyed reading the work of each of these authors over the years, so it is a real pleasure to have this opportunity to contribute to the discussion of this collaboration. The geometry of LARS furnishes an elegant bridge between the Lasso and Stagewise regression, methods that I would not have suspected to be so related. Toward my own interests, LARS offers a rather different way to const...