Climate projections for the fourth assessment report1 (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios2 (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project3 (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed4. Clima...

• the use of market exchange rates in the SRES scenarios is inappropriate and PPP exchange rates should always be used • the effect of using market exchange rates is to overstate the income gap between poor and rich countries and therefore the rate of growth required to achieve convergence over any given time period • the result is to inflate the likely level of emissions • these effects are so...

The intrinsic link between the urban water cycle and climate variables, in particular rainfall, is forcing water supply managers to revise future water plans to incorporate the likely impact of climate change. However, there is great uncertainty surrounding how climate change will affect urban water security due to difficulties in projecting rainfall and the variability in rainfall projections ...

Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre National de Recherches Météorolo...

A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the m...

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world’s energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy’s role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Four illustrative marker scenarios are selected a...

Research Institute of Electric Power Industry jointly with National Center for Atmospheric Research. To contribute to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, multi-century global warming projections based on the IPCC SRES scenarios were conducted using the Earth Simulator. One of the features of our experiments is multi-century long-term projections under the stabilized radiative forcings of greenho...

Understanding the variations of streamflow of rivers is an important prerequisite for designing hydraulic structures as well as managing surface water resources in basins. An overview of the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Hablehroud River, the main river of a semi-arid basin in north-central Iran, is provided. Using the LARS-WG statistical downscaling model, the outputs of Ha...