Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are ...

The electric power load forecasting is critical for stable electric power system supply. In this paper, a seasonal ARIMA model was used to effectively forecast power load data characterized using periodicity. A numerical example reveals that the seasonal ARIMA model effectively forecast periodic power load.

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...

We present a method for the ensemble seasonal prediction of human St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) incidence and SLE virus transmission in Florida. We combine empirical relationships between modeled land surface wetness and the incidence of human clinical cases of SLE and modeled land surface wetness and the occurrence of SLE virus transmission throughout south Florida with a previously developed m...

Seasonal climate prediction offers potentially useful information for water managers. However, implementing forecast information is challenging due to the probabilistic nature of forecasts and limited demonstrations of usefulness. In this study, an adaptive groundwater pricing model utilizing operational seasonal climate forecasts was evaluated for groundwater management. The price for groundwa...

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system, is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this stud...

In this article, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double seasonal univariate time series models (Holt-Winters, ARIMA and GARCH) based on multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. A within-week seasonal cycle and a within-year seasonal cycle are accommodated in the various model speci…cations to capture both seasonalities. We investigate whether combining forecas...