Fully rational agents are allowed to optimize over expectations formation technologies in an environment where it is costly to collect and process information. It is shown in a general equilibrium framework that optimization over expectations by rational and forward oriented agents can lead to endogenous instability. Specifically, we illustrate that resulting equilibria can be both chaotic and ...

budget plays an important role in public sector management and administration .one of its components is revenues forecasting and without the necessary accuracy in predicting revenues, government deficit will occur and people are incapable of facing with losses of reducing of important and essential services like education and health care. in this study, the rational expectations hypothesis is a...

Expectations play a crucial role in modern macroeconomic models. We consider a New Keynesian framework under rational expectations and under a behavioral model of expectation formation. We show how the economy behaves in the alternative scenarios with a focus on inflation volatility. Contrary to the rational model, the behavioral model predicts that inflation volatility can be lowered if the ce...

This paper studies the dynamics of durable and nondurable consumption under two alternative assumptions about information updating by households — rational inattention and sticky expectations. We find that sticky expectations due to a fixed cost does a better job of reproducing the infrequent adjustments at the individual level and the slow adjustments at the aggregate level. We then show that ...

Analytical expectational stability results are obtained for both Euler-equation and infinitehorizon adaptive learning in a simple stochastic growth model. The rational expectations equilibrium is stable under both types of learning, though there are differences in the learning dynamics. JEL Classification: E62, D84, E21, E43.

This paper explores the extent to which the lack of rationality of economic agents has affected the economic fluctuations and the social welfare of the U.S. hog market. A group of articles has ascribed the business cycles of the hog market, observed by economists as early as the last century, mainly to the lack of rationality (cobweb expectations) of economic agents. In contrast, others, assumi...

The effectiveness of economic policies depends on the nature of expectations. Under adaptive expectations, the Philipps curve allows a governement to "surprise" agents. Under rational expectations, there is less room for economic policies. We assume that only an (endogenously determined) proportion of agents form rational expectations and show that this leads the government to optimal policies ...

We study a simple monetary model in which a central bank faces a boundedly rational private sector and has the goal of stabilizing inflation. The system’s dynamics is generated by the interaction of the expectations about inflation of the various agents involved. A modest degree of heterogeneity in such expectations is found to have interesting consequences, in particular when the central bank ...

We study the consequences of indexing, i.e. commiting to invest in risky assets only via the market portfolio. We extend the canonical rational expectations model (Grossman and Stiglitz, 1980) to allow for multiple assets and endowment shocks, and show that indexing imposes a negative externality on other uninformed agents. More indexing makes informed trading on the market more profitable, whi...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature, which is in sharp contrast to the implausibly lo...