Annual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with st...

This chapter is a simple, rigorous, practically-oriented exposition of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The general algebraic framework of a CGE model is developed from microeconomic fundamentals, and employed to illustrate (i) how a model may be calibrated using the economic data in a social accounting matrix, (ii) how the resulting system of numerical equations may be solved for...

Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992, the developed world is likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol which has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection. Standard economic theory, however, casts doubt that Kyoto will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol obeys the theoretical prediction: Kyoto mo...

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices and the great moderation are linked. First, we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until 1982:II, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spill-over has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the ...

The present study aims to examine the short-run and long-run impact of China’s trade liberalization policies on its energy demand over period from 1980 2018. results Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach co-integration show that consumption significantly increases as a result openness increase in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). granger causality test also confirm unidirectional running GDP...

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the price and macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC high-frequency data, I identify an news shock. These shocks have statistically economically significant effects. Negative leads to immediate increase prices, gradual fall production, inventories. has consequences for US econo...

This paper investigates the implications of U.S. withdrawal on environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, and the distribution of compliance costs taking into account market power of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) on emission permit markets. While exercise of market power on behalf of FSU under U.S. compliance has no environmental impact as compared to competitive permit trade, it prevent...