This report is a preprint of a manuscript that has been submitted for possible journal publication. It should not be quoted or referenced without contacting the author to ensure it remains current. The author may be contacted at penelson@ne. The possibility of adapting risk analysis to events deemed to have infinite consequences is illustrated in the context of a simple dynamic two-event model....

‘‘Nuclear threshold states’’*those that have chosen nuclear restraint despite having significant nuclear capabilities*seem like the perfect partners for the reinvigorated drive toward global nuclear disarmament. Having chosen nuclear restraint, threshold states may embrace disarmament as a way to guarantee the viability of their choice (which may be impossible in a proliferating world). Support...

India and Pakistan, both the south Asian countries accepted that have nuclear capability but this is only for maintaining peace not developing weapons. International bodies pressurized to open their installation checking activities as well sign NPT denied it due security reasons. The lack of talk confidence building measures between two countries. Pakistan engaged in official or unofficial talk...

Abstract This contribution provides an overview of nuclear risks emerging from the militarization AI technologies and systems. These include enhancements cyber threats to command, control communication infrastructures, proposed uses systems affected by inherent vulnerabilities in early warning, AI-powered unmanned vessels trailing submarines armed with ballistic missiles. Taken together, add ne...

Abstract For the last five decades, states parties to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have come together every 5 years at Review Conferences explore how they can advance Treaty’s goals, including pursuit of nuclear disarmament. Despite lengthy negotiations, failed reach a consensus final document as many times succeeded and even when has been agreed it contained few tangible gains for th...

In 2014, the Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) filed lawsuits against several major Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) to International Court Justice (ICJ). connection with conclusion nuclear arms race and disarmament, RMI a lawsuit alleging breach negotiating duties. However, ICJ concluded that such complaint should be dismissed since there was no urgency in case. There is concern this judgment doe...

The nuclear arms control regime—centered on the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)—faces five challenges: failure of nuclear disarmament by the five NPT-licit nuclear powers (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States); possible cheating by non-nuclear signatories like North Korea and Iran; India, Israel, and Pakistan remaining outside the NPT; terrorists’ interest ...

Dr. Victor Bragin has been involved in the development of a fissile material cut-off treaty since 1994, first as Safeguards Analyst at the International Atomic Energy Agency, and since January 1996 as Safeguards Adviser at the Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office (ASNO). Mr. John Carlson is Director-General of ASNO, and is a statutory officer responsible directly to the Australian...

Rebecca Johnson is an independent analyst on disarmament issues based in London and Geneva. She has published several reports on the NPT Review and Extension Conference and on negotiations at the Conference on Disarmament. She represented the ACRONYM Consortium at the NPT Conference as a nongovernmental representative. The relationship between comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT) negotiations a...