We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as state variables. We find the short rate to be the only robust short-run predictor of excess returns,...

The relative predictability of returns and dividends is a central issue because it forms the paradigm to interpret asset price variation. A little studied question is how dividend smoothing, as a choice of corporate policy, affects predictability. We show that even if dividends are supposed to be predictable without smoothing, dividend smoothing can bury this predictability. Because aggregate d...

Using an earnings management model in which managers can manipulate the earnings announcement when the firm’s internal control system fails, this paper proposes a measure of earnings quality, based on Ganuza and Penalva’s (2010) notion of integral precision that can be estimated using either the time series of earnings or the relation between earnings and prices. I show that large scale frauds ...

We test the hypothesis that investment constraints in delegated portfolio management may distort demand for stocks, leading to price underreaction to news and stock return predictability. We find that institutions tend not to buy more of a stock with good news that they already overweight; they are reluctant to sell a stock with bad news that they already underweight. Stocks with good news over...

Analysts publish earnings forecasts with serially correlated errors. We assess rational versus cognitive limitation explanations for analysts’ underreaction to earnings news. Institutional investor voting for all-star analyst selections reveals whether these investors prefer analysts to issue forecasts with less serially correlated errors. Consistent with it being potentially rational for analy...

We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how advice affects the gender gap in the entry into a real-effort tournament. Our experiment is motivated by the concerns raised by approaching the gender gap through affirmative action. Advice is given by subjects who have already had some experience with the participation decision. We show that advice improves the entry decision of subjects, in that...

I examine the impact of management cash flow forecasts on investors and analysts. The news in management cash flow forecasts is priced beyond total earnings news. Analysts revise earnings forecasts more for the news in these forecasts than for the news in accruals. I further find that the market’s higher pricing of cash flow forecast news is greater for firms 1) with bad earnings news, 2) in fi...

one of the most important concepts in financial statement analysis and evaluation is conservatism. thus recognition of the factors which influence conservatism can considerably help the investor in managing the selection of more conservative assets properly and avoiding the untrue exposure of financial statements. this research is about to consider the relation of effective factors on organizat...