The crisis originated in the bursting of a house price bubble driven by an excessive credit expansion in the US, which eventually pushed the global financial system to the brink of collapse. In some countries, such as Spain or Ireland, the crisis was further compounded by the bursting of their own housing bubbles. In this regard, the current crisis is an excellent example. Historical evidence s...

Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An “anti-bubble” is defined as a self-fulfilling decreasing price created by positive price-to-price feedbacks feeding overall pessimism and negative market sentiment further strengthened by inter-persona...

cycles fluctuations in housing investment and national economy, variation in consumers and producers behavior, deviation in allocation of economic resources, the aggravation of capital transfer in asset market, the variation of income distribution pattern and imbalance in resource and expenses are the consequences of fluctuations in housing prices. these consequences and its control and recogni...

Why is this topic of house price indexes important? The Global Financial Crisis has several causes but a main cause was a housing bubble in the U.S. which led banks to make mortgage loans that were based on the assumption that house prices were not rising unusually quickly. If accurate regional house price indexes for the U.S. would have been widely available to the public, it is unlikely that ...

today one of the major questions in the iranian economy is that do liquidity injected into the economy more effected productive activities or speculative activities .this study was conducted to compare the effects of liquidity growth on real sector and assets market bubbles in iranian economy during the period 1994(2)-2012(1). for this purpose, price index of four major assets in iranian econom...

Rational price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset’s fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents facing borrowing constraints as long as assets are in strictly positive supply...

We have learned from other contributions to this conference that it can be diffi cult to pin down whether a particular rise in asset prices constitutes a bubble, especially at the time it is happening. It may be easier ex post – the defi nition that says that you know youʼve had an asset bubble when the price has just fallen by 40 per cent. Despite these uncertainties, I think it makes sense to...

Employing the fundamental value of real estate determined by the economic fundamentals, a measurement model for real estate bubble size is established based on the panel data analysis. Using this model, real estate bubble sizes in various regions in Japan in the late 1980s and in recent China are examined. Two panel models for Japan provide results, which are consistent with the reality in the ...

Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it is not possible to distinguish between an exponentially growing fundamental ...