Application of information and complexity theories to public opinion polls. The case of Greece (2004-2007). Abstract A general methodology to study public opinion inspired from information and complexity theories is outlined. It is based on probabilistic data extracted from opinion polls. It gives a quantitative information-theoretic explanation of high job approval of Greek Prime Minister Mr. ...

In this paper we ask the question: how well do pre–election polls forecast the actual results of elections in the U.S.? 1 The question is interesting for a number of reasons. First, even polling data suggests about 1/3 of polling respondents do not believe that polls work in " the best interests of the general public. " 2 The situation is such that even many national governments have undertaken...

Fuzzy models to recognize consumer preferences were developed as part of an automated inspection system for biscuits. Digital images were used to estimate physical features of chocolate chip cookies including size, shape, baked dough color, and fraction of top surface area that was chocolate chips. Polls were conducted to determine consumer ratings of cookies. Four fuzzy models were developed t...

Spatially or temporally dense polling remains both difficult and expensive using existing survey methods. In response, there have been increasing efforts to approximate various survey measures using social media, but most of these approaches remain methodologically flawed. To remedy these flaws, this paper combines 1200 state-level polls during the 2012 presidential campaign with over 100 milli...

How best to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three forecasting tools – opinion polls, economic models, and betting odds. Historically, we find that opinion polls taken close to the election are quite accurate, while economic models provide better medium-run forecasts. The 2001 election largely follows this pattern, although the economic models provided more acc...

We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm – that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. The data reveal several insights. First, voting propensity increases ...

Like all surveys, the American National Election Studies (NES) imperfectly reflects population characteristics. There are wellknown differences between actual and NES-reported turnout rates and between actual and NES-reported presidential vote divisions. This research seeks to determine whether the aggregate misrepresentation of turnout and vote choice affects the aggregate measurement of party...