This study investigates the dynamics of fiscal policy and economic stabilization using a panel dataset from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) sourced World Development Indicators (WDI) between 1985 2019. The utilized vector error correction model (VECM) rather than autoregression (PVAR) after ascertaining presence cointegrating equations (existence long-run relationships). Also, both homogenous heteroge...

Recently, we took part in a project with two local companies about the creation of a UML-based Model Driven rigorous method to develop VECM-based systems. VECM is a way to abstract from the details of different Enterprise Content Management (ECM) systems used within the same organization. This report details the experience made using our method to develop V-Protocol: a system able to protocol, ...

We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...

The paper examines the copper consumption-economic growth nexus for 16 rich economies from the period 1966 to 2010. Various generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Both series are found to be integrated of order one. Evidence of cointegration is found especially when controlling for breaks and long-run cross-sectional dependence. Causality is investigated using a vec...

The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run...

In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. In the forecasting analysis, pooled forecasts constructed by taking the median value across the point forecasts generated by the linear VECM and the STVECMs generally ...

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect government spending (Education, Health, Housing and Public Facilities, Social Protection), GRDP, DAU, population on poverty provinces in Indonesia. method uses Regression Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) panel model with 32 provinces. data used is secondary a period 2010-2020 sourced from Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Directorate Gene...

Given a compact manifold M , we prove that any bracket generating and invariant under multiplication on smooth functions family of vector fields on M generates the connected component of unit of the group DiffM . Let M be a smooth n-dimensional compact manifold, VecM the space of smooth vector fields on M and Diff0M the group of isotopic to the identity diffeomorphisms of M . Given f ∈ VecM , w...

Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. This paper contributes the literature in several important ways. First, we establish the consistency of the least squares estimator of the cointegrating vector allowing for both smooth and discontinuous transition between regimes. This is a nonr...