This study provides current empirical evidence on the impact of net U.S. government borrowing (budget deficits) on the nominal interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. The model includes an ex ante real short-term real interest rate yield, an ex ante real long-term interest rate yield, the monetary base as a percent of GDP, expected future inflation, the percentage growth rate of real GD...

The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that the two should be highly correlated. In US data there is indeed a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation is often attributed to the fact that both bond...

Nominal abstract syntax, as pioneered by the ‘FreshML’ series of metalanguages, provides first-order tools for the representation and manipulation of syntax involving bound names, binding operations and α-equivalence. Fresh O’Caml fuses nominal abstract syntax with the full Objective Caml language to yield a functional programming language with powerful facilities for representing and manipulat...

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates, expected inflation, or the inflation risk premium. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk, and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve. We find that the unconditional real rate curve in the U.S. is fairly flat around 1.3%. In one real r...

It is a familiar lesson from physical theory that interactions yield an important probe into structure. In the experiments of Rutherford almost 90 years ago, bits of matter were projected together; the physical properties of their interactions yielded evidence for a nucleus, hidden in the heart of atom. In semantics, the results of Donald Davidson in a famous 1967 paper might be viewed in a sim...

Aqueous glutaraldehyde has been polymerized under alkaline conditions in the presence of a surfactant to yield microspheres of varied diameters. Microbeads of a nominal 300 nm diameter, made fluorescent via fluoresceinisothiocyanate, were used as a carrier of rabbit anti-human red blood cell antibodies. Specific labeling of the human red blood cells as well as diagnostic use of these fluor...

An approach is presented to design inertial-fusion capsules compensated for time-dependent radiation-drive asymmetries. This approach uses in depth variable doping of the capsule ablator, i.e., the addition of small amounts of material to tailor the opacity. Simulations show that an inertial-fusion capsule, using a beryllium ablator variably doped with gold, can be designed to compensate for a ...

The Bank has recently (November 1999) switched to a new approach for estimating the term structure of interest rates from the prices of gilts. The new method is known as the Variable Roughness Penalty (VRP) model, and replaces the previously used Svensson and ITS (based on Svensson) models. This article briefly describes the new model and outlines the reason for its adoption in preference to th...